NEW YORK, NY - Relative conclusions are tough to draw from 3Q20 data due to two exceptional factors. The first is the most obvious: COVID-19 essentially shut the market down between March and June (and still remains a factor). The second is less of a headline but still relevant: 3Q19 was skewed by mansion and transfer tax changes that drove sales to 2Q19. Buyers today have leverage in many oversaturated configurations and price points. Still, there are pockets of exuberance caused by COVID shifting buyers’ criteria. Bidding wars are few and far between; however, they are still occurring and resulting in above-asking price trades on units with unique attributes (private outdoor space, unusually low monthlies, views of rivers or parks, etc.) As is typical in softer markets, demand on the lower end (<$3M) for primary residences exceeded that in the luxury, non-need-based markets.
Drivers in the near term will include: 1) continuation of historically low interest rates (money is cheap—buy low); 2) the upcoming presidential election (uncertainty causes fear and arrests execution); 3) the progression of COVID and the impact on our economy including the international sector; 4) the solve (or not) to the New York tax revenue shortfall.
- 6% of transactions had bidding wars, the lowest in 11 years (high in 2015: 31%)
- The average size of apartment sold was 14.9% higher than the decade average: size counts
- 85% of sales were below $3 million; average post-lockdown resale discount to last ask: 6.2%
- Inventory is near an all-time high: 9,319 units (1Q09 high: 10,445)
Seeing New York City creatively evolve in the face of adversity as it always does is inspiring. Only time can tell but, we foresee 2020 will be the year people look back on as the year “I wish I had bought when…”
Where do you have the edge? Manhattan Overall Inventory: 15.8 months.
Absorption is the number of months it would take to sell currently available inventory at the last six months' rate of sales. Individual submarkets can be vastly different from the overall average: The JHT Leverage Report shows you where you have the edge.
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About Julia Hoagland
Julia Hoagland and her team bring expertise to the Manhattan marketplace through extensive data examination and thoughtful interpretation. Julia and her team were ranked number one in their office multiple times in the past 15 years, and in the top 1% of nationwide agents and in the top 5% of Manhattan agents by REAL Trends rankings and the Real Deal. JHT has specific core competence in the downtown loft market, repositioning unsold properties and estate preparation and sale. In addition to her work with local and national clients, Julia's international clientele take her annually to Hong Kong and Europe.